High Probability Research Articles

Foraging Segregation Between Adult Female Northern Elephant Seals (Mirounga angustirostris) from Guadalupe Island and the San Benito Archipelago, Mexico

Female northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) are migratory animals that form colonies along the coasts of California and the Baja California Peninsula, Mexico. A recent decline in abundance has been recorded in this species Mexican distribution, which is an important reason to investigate the different ecological processes operating in these colonies. The aim of this study was to determine values of stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) in pup fur as foraging maternal indicators. During the same breeding season (2015), pup fur samples were collected to investigate these foraging variations between the two major Mexican colonies—Guadalupe Island (GI) and the San Benito Archipelago (SBA). Isotopic areas were built using the ‘SIBER’ package in R, and a custom hierarchical Bayesian model was used to compare the values from both localities. Mean (± standard deviation [SD]) δ13C values for individuals from GI and the SBA were -16.9 ± 0.8‰ and -17.3 ± 0.4‰, respectively, while δ15N values were 17.4 ± 1.1‰ and 16.7 ± 1.1‰, respectively. The difference between the posterior means indicated a high probability (P > 99%) of GI having higher stable isotope ratio values than the SBA. For the posterior SDs, there were highly probable differences (P = 100%) only for δ13C, where GI had a higher dispersion. Such differences explained why GI presented a wider isotopic niche area than the SBA, indicating more diverse foraging habits along GI’s offshore-inshore gradient. Additionally, GI showed higher δ15N values than the SBA. Although this could be related to a slightly higher trophic position for GI individuals, the latitudinal effects of foraging grounds with distinct isotopic baselines remain a plausible explanation for the variations in both isotope ratios, suggesting that individuals from the SBA foraged in a more northerly location than those from GI. This study provides valuable knowledge about how females from both colonies partition resources, especially regarding habitat use.

Clinical value of semi-quantitative parameters in 68Ga-DOTANOC PET/CT in treatment and diagnostics of cranial meningioma in a single-center retrospective analysis

BackgroundThe value of somatostatin-analogon PET tracers in theranostics in cranial meningioma has been demonstrated in several studies however, the value of semi-quantitative parameters for therapy and patient outcome is still unclear.MethodsA retrospective study was performed comparing measured semi-quantitative 68Ga-DOTANOC PET/CT parameters (maximum standardized uptake value = SUVmax, mean standardized uptake value = SUVmean, and metabolic tumor volume = MTV) and calculated ratios (SUVmax tumor/to pituitary gland, SUVmax tumor to superior sinus sagittalis), versus WHO grades and overall outcome. Patients with histological confirmed meningioma or high probability for meningioma in previous cranial MRI were eligible.ResultsThirty-two patients from January 2018 to February 2023 were retrospectively included. WHO grade I meningioma was confirmed in 17 patients, WHO grade II in five patients, WHO grade III in two patients, while in eight patients diagnosis was solely based on MRI and 68Ga-DOTANOC PET/CT findings. In 12 cases stable disease was present, in 15 cases radiation therapy was chosen, in three cases neurosurgery was preferred while in two cases palliative care was chosen. Median SUVmax values increased with WHO grade (15.84, 17.22, and 28.4, p = 0.134, Kruskal–Wallis-test) and no statistically significant difference was present for MTV, SUVmax, and calculated ratios, although the ratio for SUVmax tumor to superior sinus sagittalis had the lowest value of p = 0.067.ConclusionIncreased SUVmax values in the tumor in 68Ga-DOTANOC PET/CT are associated with higher WHO grade, although further studies including larger patient collectives are needed to solidify this hypothesis.

It is, uh, very likely? The impact of prosodic uncertainty cues on the perception and interpretation of spoken verbal probability phrases.

People typically use verbal probability phrases when discussing risks ("It is likely that this treatment will work"), both in written and spoken communication. When speakers are uncertain about risks, they can nonverbally signal this uncertainty by using prosodic cues, such as a rising, question-like intonation or a filled pause ("uh"). We experimentally studied the effects of these two prosodic cues on the listener's perceived speaker certainty and numerical interpretation of spoken verbal probability phrases. Participants (N=115) listened to various verbal probability phrases that were uttered with a rising or falling global intonation and with or without a filled pause before the probability phrase. For each phrase, they gave a point estimate of their numerical interpretation in percentages and indicated how certain they thought the speaker was about the correctness of the probability phrase. Speakers were perceived as least certain when the verbal probability phrases were spoken with both prosodic uncertainty cues. Interpretation of verbal probability phrases varied widely across participants, especially when rising intonation was produced by the speaker. Overall, high probability phrases (e.g., "very likely") were estimated as lower (and low probability phrases, such as "unlikely," as higher) when they were uttered with a rising intonation. The effects of filled pauses were less pronounced, as were the uncertainty effects for medium probability phrases (e.g., "probable"). These results stress the importance of nonverbal communication when verbally communicating risks and probabilities to people, for example, in the context of doctor-patient communication.

Rainbow Hamiltonicity in uniformly coloured perturbed digraphs

Abstract We investigate the existence of a rainbow Hamilton cycle in a uniformly edge-coloured randomly perturbed digraph. We show that for every $\delta \in (0,1)$ there exists $C = C(\delta ) \gt 0$ such that the following holds. Let $D_0$ be an $n$ -vertex digraph with minimum semidegree at least $\delta n$ and suppose that each edge of the union of $D_0$ with a copy of the random digraph $\mathbf{D}(n,C/n)$ on the same vertex set gets a colour in $[n]$ independently and uniformly at random. Then, with high probability, $D_0 \cup \mathbf{D}(n,C/n)$ has a rainbow directed Hamilton cycle. This improves a result of Aigner-Horev and Hefetz ((2021) SIAM J. Discrete Math.35(3) 1569–1577), who proved the same in the undirected setting when the edges are coloured uniformly in a set of $(1 + \varepsilon )n$ colours.

VIS-SLAM: A Real-Time Dynamic SLAM Algorithm Based on the Fusion of Visual, Inertial, and Semantic Information

A deep learning-based Visual Inertial SLAM technique is proposed in this paper to ensure accurate autonomous localization of mobile robots in environments with dynamic objects. Addressing the limitations of real-time performance in deep learning algorithms and the poor robustness of pure visual geometry algorithms, this paper presents a deep learning-based Visual Inertial SLAM technique. Firstly, a non-blocking model is designed to extract semantic information from images. Then, a motion probability hierarchy model is proposed to obtain prior motion probabilities of feature points. For image frames without semantic information, a motion probability propagation model is designed to determine the prior motion probabilities of feature points. Furthermore, considering that the output of inertial measurements is unaffected by dynamic objects, this paper integrates inertial measurement information to improve the estimation accuracy of feature point motion probabilities. An adaptive threshold-based motion probability estimation method is proposed, and finally, the positioning accuracy is enhanced by eliminating feature points with excessively high motion probabilities. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves accurate localization in dynamic environments while maintaining real-time performance.

Epidemiology of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in Sardinia, Italy: Age, sex, and environmental correlates

Using a database of 1974–2003 incident cases of haematological malignancies, we explored the time trend, geographic spread and socio-economic and environmental correlates of ALL incidence in Sardinia, Italy, by sex and age. The age- and sex-standardized (World population) ALL incidence rate was 2.0 per 100,000 (95% CI 1.8 – 2.1) and showed variable trend patterns by sex and age. In the total population, ALL incidence showed an annual per cent change of −1.4% (95% CI -0.59 – -3.34) over the study period, with a knot separating a downward slope in 1974–1996 from an increase in 1996–2003. ALL incidence replicated such pattern in women but not men, whose incidence did not substantially vary over the study period (APC = −2.57%, 95% CI -5.45 – 0.26). Among women, the spatial analysis suggested a clustering of ALL in the southwestern part of the region, whilst only a commune had a high posterior probability of a high ALL incidence among men. Three unrelated communes showed a high posterior probability of ALL at age ≤ 24; only the most populated urban centre showed excess cases at age ≥ 25 years. There was no correlation between the geographic spread of ALL at ages ≤ 24 and ≥ 25 years (p = 0.082). Urban residence was a risk factor for the younger age group. Residences near industrial settlements and in the most populated urban centre were risk factors for subjects aged ≥ 25 years. Our findings suggest age-related differences in ALL aetiology.

Integer syndrome decoding in the presence of noise

AbstractCode-based cryptography received attention after the NIST started the post-quantum cryptography standardization process in 2016. A central NP-hard problem is the binary syndrome decoding problem, on which the security of many code-based cryptosystems lies. The best known methods to solve this problem all stem from the information-set decoding strategy, first introduced by Prange in 1962. A recent line of work considers augmented versions of this strategy, with hints typically provided by side-channel information. In this work, we consider the integer syndrome decoding problem, where the integer syndrome is available but might be noisy. We study how the performance of the decoder is affected by the noise. First we identify the noise model as being close to a centered in zero binomial distribution. Second we model the probability of success of the ISD-score decoder in presence of a binomial noise. Third, we demonstrate that with high probability our algorithm finds the solution as long as the noise parameter d is linear in t (the Hamming weight of the solution) and t is sub-linear in the code-length. We provide experimental results on cryptographic parameters for the BIKE and Classic McEliece cryptosystems, which are both candidates for the fourth round of the NIST standardization process.

Evaluation of preoperative ultrasound signs associated with bladder injury during complex Cesarean delivery: case-control study.

Intraoperative hemorrhage and peripartum hysterectomy are the main complications in patients presenting with a low-lying placenta or placenta previa undergoing repeat Cesarean delivery (CD). Patients with a high probability of placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) at birth also have a higher risk of intraoperative urologic injury. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ultrasound signs and intraoperative features associated with these injuries. This was a retrospective case-control study of consecutive singleton pregnancies included in a prospective cohort of patients with a history of at least one prior CD and diagnosed prenatally with an anterior low-lying placenta or placenta previa at 32-36 weeks' gestation. All patients underwent investigational preoperative transabdominal and transvaginal ultrasound examination within 48 h prior to delivery. Ultrasound anomalies of uterine contour and uteroplacental vascularity, and gross anomalies of the lower uterine segment (LUS) and surrounding pelvic tissue at delivery, were recorded using a standardized protocol, which included evaluation of the extent of uterine contour anomalies. The diagnosis of PAS was established when one or more placental lobules could not be separated digitally from the uterine wall at delivery or during the gross examination of the hysterectomy or partial myometrial resection specimens, and was confirmed by histopathology. Data were compared between cases complicated by intraoperative bladder injury and controls from the same cohort matched at a 1:3 ratio by parity and the number of prior CDs using conditional logistic regression. There were 16 (9.4%) patients with an intraoperative bladder injury in a cohort of 170 managed by the same multidisciplinary team during the study period. There were no patients diagnosed with ureteric or bladder trigone damage. There were 14 (87.5%) patients with a bladder injury that had histopathologic evidence of PAS at birth, including 11 (68.8%) cases described on microscopic examination as placenta increta and three (18.8%) as placenta creta. There was a significant (P = 0.03) difference between cases and controls in the distribution of the intraoperative LUS vascularity, whereby the higher the number of enlarged vessels, the higher the odds of bladder injury. Multivariable regression analysis revealed that both gestational age at delivery and LUS remodeling on transabdominal ultrasound were associated with bladder injury. A longer gestational age was associated with lower risk of injury. A higher LUS remodeling grade on transabdominal ultrasound was associated with an increased risk of bladder injury. Patients with Grade-3 remodeling (involving > 50% of the LUS) had 9-times higher odds of a bladder injury compared to patients with Grade-1 remodeling (involving < 30% of the LUS). Preoperative ultrasound examination is useful in the evaluation of the risk of intraoperative bladder injury in patients with a history of prior CD presenting with a low-lying placenta or placenta previa. The larger the remodeling of the LUS on transabdominal ultrasound, the higher the risk of adverse urologic events. © 2024 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Mechanics limits ecological diversity and promotes heterogeneity in confined bacterial communities

Multispecies bacterial populations often inhabit confined and densely packed environments where spatial competition determines the ecological diversity of the community. However, the role of mechanical interactions in shaping the ecology is still poorly understood. Here, we study a model system consisting of two populations of nonmotile Escherichia coli bacteria competing within open, monolayer microchannels. The competitive dynamics is observed to be biphasic: After seeding, either one strain rapidly fixates or both strains orient into spatially stratified, stable communities. We find that mechanical interactions with other cells and local spatial constraints influence the resulting community ecology in unexpected ways, severely limiting the overall diversity of the communities while simultaneously allowing for the establishment of stable, heterogeneous populations of bacteria displaying disparate growth rates. Surprisingly, the populations have a high probability of coexisting even when one strain has a significant growth advantage. A more coccus morphology is shown to provide a selective advantage, but agent-based simulations indicate this is due to hydrodynamic and adhesion effects within the microchannel and not from breaking of the nematic ordering. Our observations are qualitatively reproduced by a simple Pólya urn model, which suggests the generality of our findings for confined population dynamics and highlights the importance of early colonization conditions on the resulting diversity and ecology of bacterial communities. These results provide fundamental insights into the determinants of community diversity in dense confined ecosystems where spatial exclusion is central to competition as in organized biofilms or intestinal crypts.

Diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of the PHQ-2 and GAD-2: a comparison with long-format measures for depression and anxiety

BackgroundAnxiety and depression are highly prevalent and often comorbid mental disorders that are encompassed within the broad category of emotional disorders. The frequent comorbidity of anxiety and depression can pose challenges for accurate diagnosis and treatment which, in turn, highlights the need for reliable measurements that are simultaneously responsive to change and prevent non-response bias. Brief measures of anxiety and depression can potentially increase response rates due to their brevity and ease of administration. This study evaluates the psychometric characteristics, discriminative accuracy, and sensitivity to change of the Generalized Anxiety Disorder 2-item scale (GAD-2) and the Patient Health Questionnaire 2-item scale (PHQ-2) within a clinical population.MethodThe sample comprised treatment-seeking participants (n = 3,411), screened (n = 2,477) to receive an internet-based psychotherapeutic intervention (cognitive-behavioral, psychodynamic, or waitlist).ResultsBrief measures can effectively detect individuals who may be eligible for a diagnosis of depression and anxiety, not only prior to but also during and following the completion of psychological treatment. The discriminative ability of the GAD-2 was significantly greater during active treatment and at post-assessment compared with pre-treatment screening, although no such differences were found for the PHQ-2. Finally, endorsing the most severe response option on the GAD-2 and PHQ-2 was associated with a high probability of presenting with clinically relevant anxiety and depressive symptoms.ConclusionBrief measures of anxiety and depression are viable instruments to screen for and monitor anxiety and depressive symptoms.Clinical trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT05016843.

Average Degree of the Essential Variety

AbstractThe essential variety is an algebraic subvariety of dimension 5 in real projective space $$\mathbb R\mathrm P^{8}$$ R P 8 which encodes the relative pose of two calibrated pinhole cameras. The 5-point algorithm in computer vision computes the real points in the intersection of the essential variety with a linear space of codimension 5. The degree of the essential variety is 10, so this intersection consists of 10 complex points in general. We compute the expected number of real intersection points when the linear space is random. We focus on two probability distributions for linear spaces. The first distribution is invariant under the action of the orthogonal group $$\textrm{O}(9)$$ O ( 9 ) acting on linear spaces in $$\mathbb R\mathrm P^{8}$$ R P 8 . In this case, the expected number of real intersection points is equal to 4. The second distribution is motivated from computer vision and is defined by choosing 5 point correspondences in the image planes $$\mathbb R\mathrm P^2\times \mathbb R\mathrm P^2$$ R P 2 × R P 2 uniformly at random. A Monte Carlo computation suggests that with high probability the expected value lies in the interval $$(3.95 - 0.05,\ 3.95 + 0.05)$$ ( 3.95 - 0.05 , 3.95 + 0.05 ) .

Co-occurrence and abundance of pollinators and pests in horticultural systems in Africa using an integrated Earth observation-based approach

ABSTRACT Flower-visiting insects that are pollinators play a critical role in promoting biodiversity in agroecosystems and agricultural food production through their pollination ecosystem service. However, several factors affect the survival of these pollinators and flower visitors, including the heavy and indiscriminate application of agrochemicals to control crop insect pests, which is impacted by various cropping patterns in a landscape and by shifting environmental conditions. Thus, this study focused on investigating the influence of cropping patterns on the spatial distribution of pollinators (Apis mellifera, Hymenoptera other than A. mellifera, and Syrphidae), flower visitors (Calliphoridae), and pests, i.e. fruit fly (Bactrocera dorsalis) and false codling moth (Thaumatotibia leucotreta) of the avocado, a pollinator-dependent crop. Cropping patterns, earth observation data and relevant environmental variables were used as the predictor variables for modeling the potential distribution and abundance of avocado pollinators, flower visitors and pests in one of the leading regions in avocado production in Kandara, Maragua, and Gatanga sub-Counties in Murang’a County, Kenya. In specific, species distribution modeling (SDM) and species abundance modeling (SAM) techniques, i.e. the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model (presence-only data) and negative binomial (NB) distribution in a generalized linear model (GLM) (abundance data) were used, respectively. Additionally, the spatial distribution probability of the co-occurrence of the pollinators, flower visitors and pests was also analyzed. This study revealed that cropping patterns was the most consistent influential predictor variables for the distribution of avocado pollinators, flower visitors and pests. A large area of Kandara and some parts of Maragua and Gatanga sub-Counties showed a high spatial distribution probability of the studied avocado pollinators, flower visitors and pests. However, only the majority of Kandara sub-County had a high spatial distribution probability score of the potential co-occurrence of the avocado pollinators, flower visitors and pests. Further, A. mellifera was the most abundant flower-visiting pollinator compared with the other studied pollinators, while B. dorsalis was the most abundant avocado pest compared with T. leucotreta. In addition, GLM analysis indicated that no environmental variable was significant in explaining the abundance of the studied avocado pollinators, whereas precipitation and elevation derivatives of aspect and hillshade were statistically significant (p ≤ 0.05) in explaining the abundance of B. dorsalis. Solar radiation was significant in explaining only the abundance of T. leucotreta. Our study revealed that SDM and SAM modeling outputs can be used to inform decision-making for the implementation of sustainable management efforts regarding pollinators, flower visitors, and insect pests.

MS and NMR Analysis of Isotopically Labeled Chloramination Disinfection Byproducts: Hyperlinks and Chemical Reactions.

FT-ICR MS and NMR analysis of an isotopically labeled complex mixture of water disinfection byproducts formed by chloramine disinfection of model phenolic acids is described. A new molecular formula assignment procedure using the CoreMS Python library able to assign isotopically enriched formulas is proposed. Statistical analysis of the assigned formulas showed that the number of compounds, the diversity of the mixture, and the chlorine count increase during the chloramination reaction. The complex reaction mixture was investigated as a network of reactions using PageRank and Reverse PageRank algorithms. Independent of the MS signal intensities, the PageRank algorithm calculates the formulas with the highest probability at convergence of the reaction; these were chlorinated and nitrated derivatives of the starting materials. The Reverse PageRank revealed that the most probable chemical transformations in the complex mixture were chlorination and decarboxylation. These agree with the data obtained from INADEQUATE NMR spectra and literature data, indicating that this approach could be applied to gain insight into reactions pathways taking place in complex mixtures without any prior knowledge.

Testing the predictive power of reverse screening to infer drug targets, with the help of machine learning

Estimating protein targets of compounds based on the similarity principle—similar molecules are likely to show comparable bioactivity—is a long-standing strategy in drug research. Having previously quantified this principle, we present here a large-scale evaluation of its predictive power for inferring macromolecular targets by reverse screening an unprecedented vast external test set of more than 300,000 active small molecules against another bioactivity set of more than 500,000 compounds. We show that machine-learning can predict the correct targets, with the highest probability among 2069 proteins, for more than 51% of the external molecules. The strong enrichment thus obtained demonstrates its usefulness in supporting phenotypic screens, polypharmacology, or repurposing. Moreover, we quantified the impact of the bioactivity knowledge available for proteins in terms of number and diversity of actives. Finally, we advise that developers of such approaches follow an application-oriented benchmarking strategy and use large, high-quality, non-overlapping datasets as provided here.

Transfer of statistical learning between tasks.

Recent studies have shown that observers can learn to suppress locations in the visual field with a high distractor probability. Here, we investigated whether this learned suppression resulting from a spatial distractor imbalance transfers to a completely different search task that does not contain any distractors. Observers performed the additional singleton task and learned to suppress the location that was likely to contain a color singleton distractor. Within a block, the additional singleton task would randomly switch to a T-among-L task where observers searched in parallel (Experiment 1) or serially (Experiment 2) for a T among Ls. The upcoming search was either unpredictable (Experiment 1/2A) or cued (Experiment 1/2B). The results show that there was transfer of learning from one to the other task as the learned suppression stayed in place after the switch regardless of whether the T-among-L task was performed via parallel or serial search. Moreover, cueing that the task would switch had no effect on performance. The current findings indicate that implicit learned biases are rather inflexible and remain in place even when the task and the required search strategy are dramatically different and even when participants can anticipate that a change in the search required is imminent. This transfer of the suppression to a different task is consistent with the notion that suppression is proactively applied. Because the location is already suppressed proactively, that is, before display onset, regardless which display and task is presented, the suppressed location competes less for attention than all other locations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Overview of acute liver failure in India.

Acute liver failure (ALF) is an infrequent, but serious complication subsequent to severe acute liver injury (sALI) due to various hepatotoxic agents such as hepatotropic virus(es) and drugs such as anti-tubercular medications, paracetamol, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), antibiotics and anti-cancer and anti-epileptic therapy and due to metabolic and autoimmune disease flares. ALF after sALI presents with encephalopathy associated with prolonged international normalized ratio (INR). Mortality in ALF is high and ranges between 50% and 80%. Due to severe liver damage, multiple sequels consequent to hepatic dysfunction result in complications such as hyperammonemia that culminates in encephalopathy associated with cerebral edema; innate immune paralysis resulting in increased frequency of infections and endotoxemia causing decrease in systemic vascular resistance (SVR) and tissue hypoperfusion and damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs) released from damaged hepatic parenchyma inducing pro-inflammatory cytokine storm, which may cause other organ dysfunctions. Certain etiologies such as hepatitis E virus and hepatitis A virus-related ALF or paracetamol-ALF (hyper-acute presentation) have better survival than remaining causes. In addition, if etiology-specific treatment (antivirals for ALF related to hepatitis B virus (HBV) or Herpes simplex virus (HSV) or N-acetylcysteine for paracetamol) is available, then the outcome with treatment is better. About half of the patients can be salvaged with medical therapy. All patients need intensive care and organ support to provide time for the liver to regenerate. Various prognostic models to predict high probability of mortality have been described, which should be used to select patient early during the disease for liver transplantation, which is associated with high long-term survival in these sick patients. The Indian National Association for Study of the Liver (INASL) recommends the ALF-Early Dynamic (ALFED) model as a preferred prognostic model in the Indian scenario, where hepatitis viruses are a dominant etiology of ALF and occur on a naïve liver with good regenerative capacity.

Report on Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2B observations of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline methane leak

Abstract. In late September 2022, explosions of the Nord Stream pipelines caused what could be the largest anthropogenic methane leak ever recorded. We report on Landsat 8 (L8) and Sentinel-2B (S-2B) observations of the sea-foam patch produced by the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) leak located close to Bornholm island, acquired on 29 and 30 September, respectively. Usually, reflected sunlight over sea is insufficient for these Earth imagers to observe any methane signal in nadir-viewing geometry. However, the NS2 foam patch observed here is bright enough to possibly allow the detection of methane above it. We apply the multi-band single-pass (MBSP) method to infer methane enhancement above the NS2 foam patch and then use the integrated mass enhancement (IME) method in a Monte Carlo ensemble approach to estimate methane leak rates and their uncertainties. This very specific NS2 observation case challenges some of MBSP and IME implicit assumptions and thus calls for customized calibrations: (1) for MBSP, we perform an empirical calibration of sea-foam albedo spectral dependence by using sea-foam observations in ship trails, and (2) for IME, we yield a tailored effective wind speed calibration that accounts for a partial plume observation, as methane enhancement may only be seen above the NS2 sea-foam patch. Our comprehensive uncertainty analysis yields large methane leak rate uncertainty ranges that include zero for single overpasses and, assuming they are independent, a best estimate of 502 ± 464 t h−1 for the combined averaged L8 and S-2B emission rate. Within all our Monte Carlo ensembles, positive methane leak rates have higher probabilities (80 %–88 %) than negative ones (12 %–20 %), thus indicating that L8 and S-2B likely captured a methane-related signal. Overall, we see our work both as a nuanced analysis of L8 and S-2B contributions to quantifying the NS2 leak emissions and as a methodological cautionary tale that builds insight into MBSP and IME sensitivities.

Factors influencing subseasonal predictability of northern Eurasian cold spells

AbstractCold‐air outbreaks have significant impacts on human health, energy consumption, agriculture, and overall well‐being. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal (S2S) models in predicting cold conditions over northern Eurasia, defined here as the lower tercile of weekly mean 2‐metre temperature anomalies. To assess the predictability of these events we use ensemble hindcasts from five prediction systems from the S2S database. Our analysis focuses on identifying the conditions under which the models confidently predict cold temperatures with a high (&gt;0.5) probability 3–4 weeks ahead, which potentially can represent windows of forecast opportunity. We compare the group of forecasts that correctly predicted the events to the group that forecasted events that did not occur in practice (false alarms). Most of the confident forecasts of cold spells, both correct and false alarms, have cold anomalies already in the initial conditions, often in conjunction with either a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, or Scandinavian Blocking. We find that S2S models tend to overpredict cold temperatures, with false alarms occurring more likely when the forecasts are initialized during a weak polar vortex. Furthermore, most of the confident false alarms receive the signal from the stratosphere rather than following internal tropospheric dynamics. False alarms initialized during the weak polar vortex conditions are more common when the vortex is in a recovery stage and, subsequently, the downward ‐propagating signal is short‐lived in the troposphere. The analysis of forecasts during different Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) phases shows that nearly half of all confident correct cold‐temperature forecasts are initialized during an active MJO in phases 6–8. On the other hand, most false alarms occur during phase 3, which we suggest is due to the presence of the Scandinavian Blocking regime in the initial conditions for this phase.

Mapping high probability area for the Bacillus anthracis occurrence in wildlife protected area, South Omo, Ethiopia

Anthrax is a zoonotic disease caused by a spore-forming gram-positive bacterium, Bacillus anthracis. Increased anthropogenic factors inside wildlife-protected areas may worsen the spillover of the disease at the interface. Consequently, environmental suitability prediction for B. anthracis spore survival to locate a high-risk area is urgent. Here, we identified a potentially suitable habitat and a high-risk area for appropriate control measures. Our result revealed that a relatively largest segment of Omo National Park, about 23.7% (1,218 square kilometers) of the total area; 36.6% (711 square kilometers) of Mago National Park, and 29.4% (489 square kilometers) of Tama wildlife Reserve predicted as a high-risk area for the anthrax occurrence in the current situation. Therefore, the findings of this study provide the priority area to focus on and allocate resources for effective surveillance, prevention, and control of anthrax before it causes devastating effects on wildlife.

The echocardiographic pulmonary to left atrial ratio: A noninvasive variable for the hemodynamic classification of pulmonary hypertension in dogs.

Hemodynamic classification of pulmonary hypertension (PH) has important clinical implications. However, only a few echocardiographic variables have been used to hemodynamically classify PH in dogs. To evaluate the echocardiographic pulmonary to left atrial ratio index (ePLAR) in dogs with PH. Forty-six dogs with intermediate to high probability of PH. Cross-sectional study. Variables were compared between dogs with precapillary PH [PrePH (n = 24)] vs postcapillary PH [PostPH (n = 22)], and with combined PH [CombPH (n = 14)] vs isolated PH [IsoPH (n = 8)] using the t-, Mann-Whitney, Pearson's Chi, or Fisher's exact test. The receiver operating characteristic curve and Youden index were used to identify the optimal ePLAR cutoff value to differentiate among the groups, intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were used to determine the reliability of measurements. The mean (SD) ePLAR of the PrePH was higher than that of the PostPH group [0.36 (0.13) vs 0.26 (0.09), respectively; P = .005]. The median (interquartile range) ePLAR of the CombPH was higher than that of the IsoPH subgroup [0.29 (0.24-0.38), vs 0.20 (0.16-0.23), respectively; P = .001]. The best cutoff value of ePLAR for identifying IsoPH was <0.245 [AUC at cutoff point = 0.86; sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI]) = 0.71 (0.47-0.95); specificity (95% CI) = 1 (0.76-1)]. The ICC analysis indicated a high degree of reliability. ePLAR can be considered a valid noninvasive variable to hemodynamically classify PH in dogs with an intermediate to high probability of PH. Assessment of ePLAR can be useful in the therapeutic management of PH in dogs.